Top-down macro analysis covering rates, credit, labor, and equity markets.
The oil futures curve has already pre-traded a clean Strait of Hormuz reopening that physics will not deliver. Stranded war premium, latent demand, and a structural deficit the curve ignores. The trade: buy the dip in XLE on any deal — the fracture signal is a US recession.
Inventory Bullwhip: The tariff front-run and its cascading effects on supply chains, corporate margins, and consumer prices.
Structural Deceleration: How strong is the US labor market? An analysis of payroll revisions, participation, and the divergence between household and establishment surveys.
Using data from the Fed's G.19 release, clear signs of consumer apprehension are emerging. This trend suggests demand is finally being impacted by years of rising prices.
Tracking flows through the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Facility to understand liquidity conditions. When system liquidity becomes constrained, the most speculative assets are first to be affected.