DCF Scenario Engine — Chaos Theory Macro

ChaosTheory Macro

Models & Visualizations / DCF Scenario Engine

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Step 1 — Model Inputs

Revenue & Growth

Base Revenue ($M)$500M

Revenue Growth — 5yr Avg (%)8.5%

NWC Investment (% of Rev Δ)5%

Terminal Growth Rate (%)2.5%

Profitability

Operating Margin (%)18%

Tax Rate (%)21%

Reinvestment & CAPEX

Reinvestment Rate (% of NOPAT)12%

D&A as % of Revenue4%

Cost of Capital (WACC)

Risk-Free Rate (%)4.3%

Equity Risk Premium (%)5.5%

Beta1.10

Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (%)5.5%

Equity Weight (%)70%

Share Data

Shares Outstanding (M)50M

Current Price ($)$110

Exit Multiple (EV/EBIT)16×

Net Debt ($M)$2000M

Intrinsic Value / Share

$142.50

DCF Fair Value

Margin of Safety

29.5%

vs. Current Price

WACC

8.8%

Blended Cost of Capital

Enterprise Value

$7.13B

PV FCFs + Terminal

↑ BUY

Free Cash Flow Projection 5yr + Terminal

Sensitivity Analysis Growth × WACC

Sensitivity: Exit Multiple × WACC Terminal Value Impact

Capital Structure Equity / Debt

Revenue Growth

8.5%

Op. Margin

18%

WACC

8.8%

Tax Rate

21%

Exit Multiple

16×

Terminal Growth

2.5%

Reinvestment

12%

NWC Inv.

5%